Lucas' Weather Discussions

The countries of Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Malawi were met with fearsome destruction after an “intense tropical cyclone” (known as a major hurricane in the Atlantic Basin) made landfall last Friday in Beira, Mozambique. Above is a satellite image of the cyclone, named Idai, as it made landfall directly over the coastal city of Beira, which experienced a major storm surge, as well as 120mph sustained winds (Category 3 equivalent) that combined for unanticipated destruction. Thereafter, Idai proceeded inland in the direction of Zimbabwe and Malawi, where it stalled out (stopped moving) and dumped copious amounts of rain in the area, leading to extreme flooding (shown below). The latest confirmed death toll from all three countries is 504, a number nearly certain to rise as recovery slowly continues. With thousands of people still unaccounted for in Mozambique, this already tragic death toll might just double or even triple.

So what are the reasons why this storm was so disastrous?

The answers lie in the area’s storm history, economic status, and general preparedness (or lack thereof). First, this area does not see very many cyclones, as the ingredients necessary are not as available as they are in the tropical North Atlantic and Pacific oceans (more on that next week). Those that do hit, usually are fairly weak, which makes Idai a stark anomaly. This sparse history of cyclones in the region as well as being a very undeveloped part of the world in terms of insignificant infrastructure and emergency response capabilities, can also be blamed for the severity of the disaster. These factors force people to hunker down in their homes (which are, for the most part, not built to withstand these conditions), as they lack the physical and financial means to safely evacuate. This unfortunately leads to the astronomical death tolls being seen now.

Also impacted by the rampant poverty in this region of the world is how people receive warnings about impending weather, as well as what things people can do to prepare in advance. Most people here are unable to procure the items necessary in a storm-readiness kit, much less know when a storm is imminent. This means that, unfortunately, a storm of this magnitude striking this area would cause mass casualties, as has occurred this past weekend.

Final thoughts: as major a tragedy as this is, a bigger tragedy would be to not take it as a lesson in hurricane preparedness, especially in a developed nation such as the US, where everyone has the means to evacuate safely from the dangers of the storm, and the infrastructure to support such a mass movement of people exists. People died in this storm because they had no option but to stay put and try to ride it out- there is no excuse for those in the US to put themselves (along with loved ones and first responders) in danger by doing the same. It is both frustrating and insulting to emergency officials and the meteorologists who predict these storms when people knowingly stay behind and endanger themselves despite ample warning. Therefore, any death in the US caused by people not evacuating and electing to ride out a hurricane is inexcusable.