Just over a month has passed since my previous post regarding tropical cyclone Idai slamming into Mozambique’s coastline with unprecedented strength. Unfortunately, this is not a revisit of that storm or the situation it left central Mozambique in. Another cyclone, Kenneth, has formed and is making landfall as I write this with the equivalent strength of a category 4 hurricane (sustained winds of around 140 mph) along the northern Mozambique coast.
This is an already all-too-familiar sight, as Mozambique remains in both physical and financial stress after cyclone Idai ravaged the central coast of the country, including the city of Beira, costing Mozambique and the neighboring countries over $1B in damage. Cyclone Kenneth is stronger than Idai was at landfall, and is poised to do a similar amount of damage to a different part of the country. Perhaps some “good” news, the region of Mozambique that Kenneth is making landfall in is much less heavily populated than where Idai made landfall, so the human toll may be less devastating.
Idai made landfall in the province of Sofala, very near the major population center of Beira. As seen by the map above, Kenneth is making landfall in the less-densely populated Cabo Delgado province, a lucky break for the much denser populated Nampula province, where a landfalling cyclone would be that much more tragic.
That being said, Kenneth will still cause a major humanitarian disaster in both Cabo Delgado and Niassa provinces, as it will stall, very similarly to Idai, and dump copious amounts of rain making flooding and the dangers associated with it a real threat over the next couple days. This on top of battering the coastline with fierce winds- which very little regional architecture was built to withstand- and massive storm surge inundation. The storm surge, which is a rise in water levels due to onshore wind flow, is predicted to be anywhere between 10 to 16 feet. To put that in perspective, Hurricane Irma’s storm surge, which caused extensive damage to the SW Florida coast and the Keys in 2017, was on the order of 6-12 feet.
Final thought: Just because a disaster is slated to impact a less-populated area, doesn’t mean that it is less of a big deal. Often in developing countries such as Mozambique, less-populated areas are often less accessible for relief efforts, leading to a longer duration issue. To put it another way, the smaller percentage of the population impacted will take a bigger toll. I believe this impact will be enhanced in this situation given the continued struggle to aid those devastated by Idai just a few short weeks ago.
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